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- TRY continuing to diverge from the broad EM weakening trend vs the USD on expectations for Erdogan and Biden to reach a deal on S-400s
- A lot of differing opinions on the matter coming out today, but the red line will ultimately be whether the US grants Turkey access to its Patriot system or not
- The NATO deal seems dicey, given that it would likely provoke tensions with Russia and also be a bit unconventional for NATO to be happy overseeing a Russian-made missile system
- Nevertheless, the outcome remains to be seen on Monday and what could be a sharp unwind of positive TRY sentiment on any potentially disappointing outcome
- Both sides have so far hinted at being open to a deal, but no concrete moves have been made on either side
- and rhetoric from the US side has been more on the hawkish side leading up to today with many calling for Biden to take a more proactive role in managing aggression in the region than Trump