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TRY Rally Faces Headwinds at 8.50 as Erdogan Heads to Northern Cyprus

TURKEY
  • USD/TRY trades mostly flat around the open, despite some early upside in the BBDXY.
  • The cross outperformed w/w and stands a fraction above key psychological support at 8.50 as dovish drivers fell out of the CBRT's reaction function on higher CPI in June and expectations for further upside/volatility over summer.
  • This week's focus shifts to EU relations as Erdogan visits Northern Cyprus following a number of aggressive remarks in recent weeks regarding drilling in the East Med, and the possible re-opening of the controversial Varosha town.
  • The EU will be watching Erdogan's speeches closely for aggressive rhetoric and have warned him against stoking tensions in the region by making a more tangible Turkish presence on Cyprus.
  • The re-opening of the Varosha town has previously been one of the EU's red lines for punitive measures on Turkey, so it will be interesting to see how Erdogan conducts his visit.
  • Nevertheless, the mere visit itself is broadly inflammatory and should put pressure on EU-Turkey relations after a period of more constructive ties.
  • Comments on renewed drilling activities in the East Med will likely bring forward sanctions risks and should be monitored closely.
  • Intraday Sup1: 8.4875, Sup2: 8.4345, Res1: 8.5633, Res2: 8.5808
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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