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Free AccessTRY Slides as CPI Looks to Breach the 20% Mark, FOMC In Focus
- USD/TRY trades +0.59% higher this morning, showing some idiosyncratic weakness ahead of CPI data and the FOMC. The cross rose +0.67% in yesterday's session after failing to make a consolidated break below 9.4867 support.
- Domestic CPI & PPI data will be the key focal point for today, with the CBRT enacting its easing cycle directly into proinflationary pricing dynamics doing little to stem TRY weakness in the near to medium-term.
- Any further upside above the 20.35% headline and 17.90% core estimates will likely draw more TRY selling and place the CBRT in a predicament going into its next meeting with analysts broadly expecting at least another 100bp cut.
- Having broken 9.6249 resistance that formed the recent lateral range, we now see 9.7121 & 9.80-8517 come into focus - remembering that sell side institutions have placed some lofty end-2021 targets in the 10.50-11.00 range for USD/TRY.
- After pricing data, all eyes turn to the FOMC later with brewing hawkish risks surrounding the discussion on inflation and rates lift off that could spark some intraday volatility towards the end of the session.
- Intraday Sup1: 9.5419, Sup2: 9.4867, Res1: 9.7121, Res2: 9.80
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