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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Edges Higher As Safe Investors Look For Safe Haven

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasury futures have rallied as investors sought safe-haven assets amid growing expectations of earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite Fed officials maintaining their stance on an extended pause in rate changes, global markets are reacting to an looming trade war sparked by U.S. policies, particularly tariffs. 
  • TU is trading +03+ at 103-13⅝, while TY is trading +13+ at 111-02. TY has now broken through 110-31 (1.00 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing) and 111-00 (Round number resistance)
  • Cash tsys are trading 2-4bps richer, with the belly outperforming. The 2s7s30s fly is -1.5bps at -26.623 and has dropped about 16bps over the past week or so. The  2yr is -2.7bps at 4.024%, 7yr outperforming -3.8bps at 4.131%, while the 10yr is -3.3bps at 4.227%
  • Fed-dated OIS was broadly unchanged on the day, around 57bp of rate cuts remains priced by the December FOMC with approximately 7bps of easing priced into the May policy meeting
  • Later today we have Personal Spending/Income, PCE, Wholesale Inventories & MNI Chicago PMI
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  • Treasury futures have rallied as investors sought safe-haven assets amid growing expectations of earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite Fed officials maintaining their stance on an extended pause in rate changes, global markets are reacting to an looming trade war sparked by U.S. policies, particularly tariffs. 
  • TU is trading +03+ at 103-13⅝, while TY is trading +13+ at 111-02. TY has now broken through 110-31 (1.00 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing) and 111-00 (Round number resistance)
  • Cash tsys are trading 2-4bps richer, with the belly outperforming. The 2s7s30s fly is -1.5bps at -26.623 and has dropped about 16bps over the past week or so. The  2yr is -2.7bps at 4.024%, 7yr outperforming -3.8bps at 4.131%, while the 10yr is -3.3bps at 4.227%
  • Fed-dated OIS was broadly unchanged on the day, around 57bp of rate cuts remains priced by the December FOMC with approximately 7bps of easing priced into the May policy meeting
  • Later today we have Personal Spending/Income, PCE, Wholesale Inventories & MNI Chicago PMI