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Tsys Futures Off Lows, As Market Digests US CPI

US TSYS

TYH4 is currently trading at 109-21+, down 01+ from New York closing levels. Treasuries maintained a tight range in Asia, with TYH4 briefly dipping to new lows at 109-16+ during the morning session, rebounding quickly to settle around 109-21.


  • Mar'24, 10Y futures opened slightly lower, reaching new lows at 109-16+, a level unseen since late Nov'23 and marking initial technical support (50.0% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 bull phase). The quick reversal brought them back to 109-21, where they held for the rest of the session. Mar'24 2Y futures performed better, trading off overnight lows of 101-28.75 and gradually climbing to 101-31.125.
  • Cash yield curves steepened in Asia, with the 2Y yield, 3bps lower at 4.468%, while the 10Y yield is 0.6bp lower at 4.308%.
  • A quiet session for headlines, notable ones include Yellen participating in American events later today, and Democrat Suozzi winning the New York House Race.
  • December 2024 expectations and cumulative easing stand at 4.41%, -92bps (FOMC) vs 4.45%, -58bps (BOC); 3.98%, -34bps (RBA); and 5.22%, -45bps (RBNZ).
  • Looking ahead, Wednesday's data focuses on PPI revisions and US MBA Mortgage Applications, with Fed speakers Chicago Fed Goolsbee and Fed VC Barr scheduled.
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