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Tsys Hold Modest Gains, Fed Enters Policy Blackout Tonight

US TSYS
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  • Treasury futures have been trading sideways in modestly positive territory since midmorning Friday - a rather quiet end to a hectic week, the Federal Reserve entering their self-imposed media Blackout regarding policy at midnight tonight.
  • Treasuries surged higher on heavy volumes early overnight (TYM4>1.13M by the open) after Israel launched targeted attack against Iran. Safe haven support in rates faded receded as both sides downplayed the action.
  • Safe haven bid pushed Jun'24 10Y futures to 108-22.5 high late Thursday evening, while the contract currently trades 107-28.5 (+6) after the bell - well above initial technical support of 107-13+ Low Apr 16. 10Y yield 4.6125% -.0181, curves mildly flatter: 2s10s -.485 -36.050.
  • Projected rate cut pricing held largely steady vs. late Thursday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -13.5% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.5bp at 5.283%. July'24 cumulative at 12.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -23bp.
  • Look ahead: economic data picks up next Tuesday with regional manufacturing data from Philly and Richmond Fed, S&P PMIs and New Home Sales.
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  • Treasury futures have been trading sideways in modestly positive territory since midmorning Friday - a rather quiet end to a hectic week, the Federal Reserve entering their self-imposed media Blackout regarding policy at midnight tonight.
  • Treasuries surged higher on heavy volumes early overnight (TYM4>1.13M by the open) after Israel launched targeted attack against Iran. Safe haven support in rates faded receded as both sides downplayed the action.
  • Safe haven bid pushed Jun'24 10Y futures to 108-22.5 high late Thursday evening, while the contract currently trades 107-28.5 (+6) after the bell - well above initial technical support of 107-13+ Low Apr 16. 10Y yield 4.6125% -.0181, curves mildly flatter: 2s10s -.485 -36.050.
  • Projected rate cut pricing held largely steady vs. late Thursday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -13.5% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.5bp at 5.283%. July'24 cumulative at 12.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -23bp.
  • Look ahead: economic data picks up next Tuesday with regional manufacturing data from Philly and Richmond Fed, S&P PMIs and New Home Sales.