TTF Continues Bearish Trend on Low Demand and Strong LNG Supplies

The bearish trend in European gas market remains in place with the front month TTF falling nearly 10€/MWh since the start of April. The downside pressure comes from low demand in Europe, lack of competition from Asia enabling strong LNG imports and healthy storage and despite ongoing Norwegian field maintenance.

• TTF JUN 23 down -1.9% at 29.16€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.6% at 48.45€/MWh
• Total European net LNG imports flows have dipped from record levels in April but remain above the five year range for the time of year with sendout at around 430mcm/d on 21 May.
• European gas storage was up to 65.93% full on 21 May according to GIE data. Stocks were 21.7% points above the average at the end of March but are now 18.6% points above. All injection rates seen in the last ten years would be enough for storage to surpass the EU target of 90% by 1 Nov.
• Imports from Norway are today down to 226.4mcm/d with maintenance outages including at Ormen Lange, Aasta Hansteen and Troll continuing into mid June.
• Above normal temperatures in central and NW Europe are expected to fall back just below normal towards the end of the week before recovering next week.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.2mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are down at 30.3mcm/d due to scheduled works.