TTF Declines With Steady Supplies and Warm Weather

European gas prices continue to fall back with TTF front month down another 20% so far this month. EU efforts to reduced demand have combined with high LNG flows and strong Norwegian supply following September maintenance to bring prices back down.

• TTF NOV 22 down -6% at 146.9€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -2.9% at 155€/MWh
• TTF front month is now down to approximately 50% higher than levels in May before the halt to Nord Stream supplies. Concern for supplies beyond the coming winter are supporting future seasons. EU is increasing LNG import capacity as quickly as possible but will gradually increase over the coming couple of years and global liquefaction capacity will not significantly increase until 2025 and beyond.
• European storage was up to 90.64% full on data for Oct 7 compared to a five year average of 87.5%. with Germany up to 94.07%, Italy at 92.7%, France at 97.8%, and Netherlands at 93.06%.
• Norwegian supply is today nominated at 323.9mcm/d while transit via Ukraine is stable at 42.4mcm/d.
• Weather forecasts suggest NW European temperatures will be above normal for much of the coming two week forecast period.