TTF Drifts Lower With Comfortable Supply Despite Cooler Weather

European gas markets opened slightly down on the day as prices continue to drift lower. Front month TTF has fallen from around 59.5€/MWh at the start of February down to 49.5€/MWh today.

• TTF MAR 23 down -0.7% at 49.5€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -1.2% at 50€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast for NW Europe shows temperatures are expected to drop below normal at the end of this week and remain at or below normal into the first week of March. TTF remains weak despite the cooler weather showing high gas storage levels and healthy supplies are enough to cover the demand.
• Competition for LNG supplies from Asia could increase later this year with a potential demand recovery in China. Total European LNG sendout averaged around 430mcm/d in the week to 18 Feb.
• European gas in storage is at 63.95% according to GIE data from 19 Feb compared to the five year average of 43.2%. Germany is at 71.47% full, Italy at 63.32%, Netherlands at 64.10%, Austria at 71.23% and France at 48.3%.
• Norwegian supplies are strong today at 338.2mcm/d after dipping lower over the weekend due to an Aasta Hansteen outage. Russian gas supplies flowing through Ukraine are up from around 30mcm last week back to a nomination of 40.4mcm/d today.