TTF Eases Back After Surge Higher on Extended Norway Outages

TTF is easing back slightly after surging 16% higher yesterday to the highest since 9 May on tight supply concerns after Norway extended the maintenance period at several gas plants and fields. Warm weather in Europe and Asia could increase demand and competition for LNG supplies is adding to the upside pressure despite the high storage levels.

• TTF JUL 23 down -3.5% at 34.8€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -2.1% at 49.18€/MWh
• Pipeline imports from Norway are today up again slightly to 260.80mcm/d as some maintenance comes to an end but outages at Nyhamna gas plant and the Ormen Lange and Aasta Hansteen fields were yesterday extended until 15 July.
• The latest weather forecast shows above normal temperatures in NW and central Europe increasing into the end of the week and maintaining above normal throughout the two week forecast period. German wind output remains low while solar output is expected to remain strong.
• Total European LNG sendout was back up to over 390mcm/d on 12 June after dipping down just below 370mcm/d over last weekend. Sendout is maintaining about 15% below May levels amid Sabine Pass LNG and Hammerfest LNG export terminal outages and maintenance at the Montoir LNG and Dragon LNG import terminal and this week.
• European gas injections remain below normal but total storage is now up to 72.56% full on 12 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 55.5%.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 41.2mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 66.0mcm/d.