TTF Eases Lower Amid Supply Risks but Near Normal Temperatures

TTF front month eases lower today with near normal weather and high storage levels helping to halt the gains seen last week due to supply risks largely driven by geopolitical tensions. Industrial action in Australia remains a risk to global LNG supplies after union members at the weekend voted to continue with strike plans to begin on Thursday.

• TTF NOV 23 down -3.8% at 51.92€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -2.5% at 56.13€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -2.1% at 54.3€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast shows temperatures in NW and central Europe holding mostly near normal throughout the coming two weeks. The current extended range month ahead forecasts suggest near on slightly below normal in the first half of November.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are relatively unchanged in recent days with today nominated at 328.8mcm/d. Supplies are still curtailed by between 16-26mcm/d in the coming days including small outages at Oseberg and Troll.
• European natural gas storage is up to 97.89% full on 14 Oct above the five year range according to GIE data after high end of season injection rates.
• LNG net import flows have averaged around 320mcm/d in the week to 14 Oct according to Bloomberg compared to approximately 400mcm/d seen this time last year.

• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today estimated up to 67.3mcm/d today.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes were up at the highest since early August at 471k contracts on Friday.