TTF Edges Back Up After Volatile Swings Yesterday

Front month TTF is edging higher again today after seeing volatile trading again yesterday as the market assess the risks of lower LNG supplies and competition from Asia with warmer weather in China and South Korea supporting cooling demand. The ongoing reduction in pipeline imports from Norway are weighed against high storage levels and low demand.

• TTF JUL 23 up 1.9% at 27.45€/MWh
• European LNG imports could be impacted by lower US exports due to maintenance at Sabine Pass and an unplanned halt to Norway’s Hammerfest LNG until 14 June. Total European LNG sendout has held around 385mcm/d this week after falling to around 350mcm/d over the weekend with outages at the import terminals of Montoir LNG and Zeebrugge LNG this week. Imports are expected to be around 20% lower in June according to Bloomberg after seeing an average sendout of 443mcm/d in May.
• Pipeline imports from Norway are largely unchanged at 224.6mcm/d today due to the ongoing maintenance season into next week with adjustments to some outage timings in recent days.
• European gas injections remain below normal but total storage is now up to 70.94% full on 7 June according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 53.8%.
• The latest European weather forecast shows above normal temperatures across central and NW Europe but with cooler temperatures in southern areas.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 40.9mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are up slightly to 67.2mcm/d.