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TTF Extends Decline Amid Weak Near Term Fundamentals


European TTF extends the decline from yesterday with Dec23 falling from over 56€/MWh at the start of the week back below 47€/MWh. There are currently no signs of an escalation of the Israel conflict to the wider Middle East region which could further pose supply risks. Bearish short-term fundamentals with near-full storage, low demand due to mild weather and forecasts for high wind power output in NW Europe are adding further downside.

    • TTF DEC 23 down -2.9% at 46.62€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -2.5% at 48.8€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2.2% at 47.12€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1.9% at 50.71€/MWh
  • The latest weather forecast is relatively unchanged with above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe this week drifting back towards normal in the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today estimated at 316.1mcm/d after recovering from just below 304mcm/d on 28 Oct.
  • Above normal end of season injections into European natural gas storage continue with stores up to 99.24% full on 30 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.1%.
  • Total European LNG sendout was at 353mcm/d on 30 Oct with an average for October of about 324mcm/d.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.35mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara at 64.8mcm/d today.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes were yesterday just above normal at 277k.

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