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Free AccessTTF Extends Decline Amid Weak Near Term Fundamentals
European TTF extends the decline from yesterday with Dec23 falling from over 56€/MWh at the start of the week back below 47€/MWh. There are currently no signs of an escalation of the Israel conflict to the wider Middle East region which could further pose supply risks. Bearish short-term fundamentals with near-full storage, low demand due to mild weather and forecasts for high wind power output in NW Europe are adding further downside.
- TTF DEC 23 down -2.9% at 46.62€/MWh
- TTF Q1 24 down -2.5% at 48.8€/MWh
- TTF SUM 24 down -2.2% at 47.12€/MWh
- TTF WIN 24 down -1.9% at 50.71€/MWh
- The latest weather forecast is relatively unchanged with above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe this week drifting back towards normal in the second week of the outlook.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today estimated at 316.1mcm/d after recovering from just below 304mcm/d on 28 Oct.
- Above normal end of season injections into European natural gas storage continue with stores up to 99.24% full on 30 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.1%.
- Total European LNG sendout was at 353mcm/d on 30 Oct with an average for October of about 324mcm/d.
- Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.35mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara at 64.8mcm/d today.
- ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes were yesterday just above normal at 277k.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.