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TTF Extends Rally on Cooling Demand and Supply Risk

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TTF front month extends the recent rally to the highest level since mid-April, likely supported by higher cooling demand next week and low wind generation in NW Europe to add to LNG supply risks from increasing Asia demand.

    • TTF JUN 24 up 1.6% at 33.54€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 1.4% at 34.29€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.3% at 39.2€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1% at 37.01€/MWh
  • Temperatures across Europe are expected to hold above normal throughout the two week forecast period and into the first week of June.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up to 264.9mcm/d and are expected to recovery further in the next couple of days as capacity outages reduce to around 55mcm/d on Friday.
  • European LNG sendout is holding at low levels this week at 248mcm/d on May 20 compared to 294mcm/d in the first half May and 438mcm/d in May 2023.
  • Total European gas storage is gradually building amid below normal injection rates up to 67.39% full on May 20 according to GIE compared to the five year seasonal average of 53.45%.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 54.75mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was up to 372k on May 21.
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TTF front month extends the recent rally to the highest level since mid-April, likely supported by higher cooling demand next week and low wind generation in NW Europe to add to LNG supply risks from increasing Asia demand.

    • TTF JUN 24 up 1.6% at 33.54€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 1.4% at 34.29€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.3% at 39.2€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1% at 37.01€/MWh
  • Temperatures across Europe are expected to hold above normal throughout the two week forecast period and into the first week of June.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up to 264.9mcm/d and are expected to recovery further in the next couple of days as capacity outages reduce to around 55mcm/d on Friday.
  • European LNG sendout is holding at low levels this week at 248mcm/d on May 20 compared to 294mcm/d in the first half May and 438mcm/d in May 2023.
  • Total European gas storage is gradually building amid below normal injection rates up to 67.39% full on May 20 according to GIE compared to the five year seasonal average of 53.45%.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 54.75mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was up to 372k on May 21.