TTF Falls as Warm Temperatures Ease Pressure on LNG and Storage

European TTF gas continues to decline after falling 40% from 135$/bbl on 15 Dec as the warmer end to December in NW Europe has eased heating demand pressures.

• US Natgas JAN 23 down -5.3% at 5$/mmbtu
• The current weather forecast shows temperatures across Europe above normal throughout most of the two week outlook. Temperatures are shown to trail slightly lower back towards normal from about 8 Jan.
• Warmer weather has eased the pressure on LNG imports supplies with net import flows falling from over 500mcm/d in the first half of December down to 404mcm/d on 25 Dec. Klaipeda LNG in Lithuania has reduced regas capacity until 15 Jan due to maintenance.
• Norwegian supplies remain strong with today nominated at 334.4mcm/d while gas transit via Ukraine is steady at 42.3mcm/d.
• European storage has been holding steady since 20 Dec with the latest GIE data showing stores at 83.21% on 26 Dec compared to the five year average of 71.5%. Gas in store in Germany is at 88.62% full, Italy at 83.15%, France at 83.98% and Netherlands at 77.42.