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TTF Falls to Lowest since Early October


TTF front month has fallen to the lowest since Oct 9 when prices spiked amid rising concerns over Middle East supplies.

  • Fresh concerns for Middle East supply due to the seizure of a vessel in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels on Sunday had provided support earlier this week but optimism for the release of hostages has helped ease supply risks from the Israel /Hamas conflict.
  • Near term Norwegian and LNG supplies remain healthy while floating storage is still above normal despite a recent dip. An expected upcoming drop in temperatures could provide some upside price pressure with winter balances still likely to be sensitive to cold weather in Europe and Asia as well as any unexpected supply disruptions.
  • Front month TTF historic 30 day volatility has fallen so far in November to the lowest since June at 69.1% with markets waiting for the first cold spell.
    • TTF DEC 23 down -3.8% at 44.07€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -3.6% at 45.44€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2.9% at 44.64€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1.9% at 48.61€/MWh

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