TTF Holding Just Above Lowest Since Sep 2021

TTF is edging higher today after holding just above the lows from last week at 52.75€/MWh. Warm weather is expected to return to NW Europe over this weekend and remain throughout most of the two week forecast period although could trail off toward normal late in the period.

• TTF MAR 23 up 1.7% at 53.61€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 up 1.9% at 55.87€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 0.9% at 63.53€/MWh
• Tight supply risks for this winter have largely disappeared due to low demand from warm winter temperatures and economic demand reductions. High storage levels and steady LNG supplies have driven prices lower but competition from Asia for LNG supplies is an upside risk as Europe look to restock storage over the summer months.
• Freeport LNG is still making progress towards a restart with the potential for shipments of fuel in tank since before the fire last June from this weekend. Further regulatory approvals are still required before a full restart.
• LNG sendout to Europe was up to around 480mcm/d on 7 Feb. Norwegian supply to is today nominated lower at 316.7mcm/d and gas transit via Ukraine is steady at 30.9mcm/d.
• Europe storage levels are at 68.16% according to GIE data from 8 Feb compared to the seasonal normal of 48.3%.