TTF Holding Small Gains on Cold Weather and LNG Disruption

TTF is holding on the small gains up from a low of 41.86€/MWh on 6 Mar with a combination of cold weather in northern Europe and a halt to French LNG imports due to industrial action.

• Four French LNG terminals remain blocked and disruption at three of them could continue until 14 March according to Elenergy and the CGT union. The strikes are causing LNG tankers to divert away from France potentially towards the UK. LNG supplies into Europe had dipped slightly before the disruption to 487mcm/d on 5 March from near record levels of 524mcm/d on 2 March.
• The month ahead ECMWF forecast suggests temperatures holding just below normal in NW Europe until mid April.
• The JKM-TTF spread is holding just in positive territory while the US netbacks to Europe and Asia are also near parity for April with Europe at 10.07$/mmbtu and Asia at 9.83$/mmbtu. The netbacks for the remaining summer months are showing a premium to Europe of between 0.6 and 1.2$/mmbtu over Asia.
• NW Europe has received about 28 cargoes so far this month with another 25 currently expected to arrive in the next couple of weeks.
  • TTF APR 23 up 2% at 44.25€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 23 up 2.3% at 45.1€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 23 up 1.8% at 52.27€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 up 1.4% at 48.72€/MWh