TTF Pulls Back

Front month TTF is easing back but is holding within yesterday’s range as mild weather and forecasts for high wind output weigh on gas demand expectations, with additional downside from below-normal storage withdrawals. Supply risks due to Red Sea tanker diversions have been supportive this week, with front month TTF rising back above €31/MWh yesterday.

• TTF MAR 24 down -1% at 29.92€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -1.1% at 30.41€/MWh
• The US launched two separate strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and intercepted a missile, amid increasing tensions in the Red Sea, following a Houthi-rebel vessel attack on Thursday.
• NW and central Europe are forecast to see mild weather continue through the first week of February before temperatures fall back to near normal from around Feb 12.
• German wind output is forecast to remain high until mid-next week to reach up to 46.6GW, limiting gas use for power generation.
• European natural gas storage remains above normal at 70.6 full on Jan 30 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five-year average of 57.6%. Net withdrawals have edge higher this week but remain below normal rates.