TTF Pulls Back on Easing Demand Pressure After Surge Last Week

Front month TTF is pulling back due to easing heating demand pressure after surging over 21% higher on Friday due to supply risks and potential higher natural gas demand due to French strikes.

• TTF APR 23 down -7.1% at 49.09€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -6.2% at 50€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -6.1% at 56.22€/MWh
• Nuclear reactor availability in France remains reduced in the short term as workers continue strike action against the country’s new pension reform. Longer term concerns that more EDF nuclear reactor checks could constrain nuclear electricity output this year.
• The current weather forecast shows temperatures in NW and central Europe at or above normal throughout most of the two week forecast. The return of milder weather and high wind generation has eased pressure on European LNG sendout but strikes are still disrupting French LNG terminals causing delays as cargoes divert to other European locations.
• European gas in storage is at 56.61% according to GIE data from 11 Mar compared to the five year average of 36.3% with slightly above normal withdrawals. Germany is at 64.35% full, Italy at 56.76%, Netherlands at 58.9%, Austria at 66.29% and France at 32.49%.
• Norwegian imports are today nominated back up to 335.5mcm/d after field maintenance limited output last week. Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today nominated at 41.6mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are 69.1mcm/d.