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TTF Pulls Back with Volatility the Highest Since Apr 2022

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month falls back from a high of just over 36.9€/MWh this morning with supply risks continuing to drive market volatility.

  • Front month 30 day volatility is the highest since April 2022 at 141% as the short term civil unrest in Russia has added to upside price risks from a recent drop in LNG imports, ongoing restricted pipeline supplies from Norway and warm weather across Europe.
  • The Russian unrest over the weekend has not impacted country’s gas production and exports but has added to the upside risks with countries including Austria, Slovakia and Hungary still reliant on Russian supplies.
  • “Russian geopolitical risk now is significantly higher than before the weekend,” said Tom Marzec-Manser from ICIS.
    • TTF JUL 23 up 4.4% at 33.95€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 2.7% at 51.2€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 3.3% at 51.14€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 2.6% at 53.01€/MWh


Source: Bloomberg

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