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TTF Q3 2023 Forecast Revised Down to 27€/MWH: JPM

NATURAL GAS

The TTF price forecast from JP Morgan has been revised significantly lower with 3Q23 down to 27€/MWh from 70€/MWh as the need to dissuade LNG flows to the Continent becomes more necessary. They see signs of a faltering recovery in natural gas industrial demand and lackluster global LNG demand.

  • They expect this price level to increase spot LNG cargo interest from Asia as it will become more economic to purchase spot cargoes relative to oil-link contracted cargoes. It could also increase power generation demand from further coal-to-gas switching.
  • They see 2023 at 43€/MWh down from the previous forecast of 63€/MWh.

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