TTF Rallies on Supply and Cold Weather Risks

TTF ticks higher as upside risks remain of colder than normal temperatures over the winter season and with Europe dependant on LNG supplies.

• TTF DEC 22 up 10% at 138.5€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 up 6.4% at 138.5€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 6.3% at 135.43€/MWh
• Ongoing restrictions to US LNG exports are a concern to supplies to Europe. Uncertainty surrounds the return of Freeport LNG as they are yet to submit restart plans to the regulator although still hope for a gradual return during November. Net LNG supplies into Europe are steady this week around 370mcm/d.
• Weather forecasts for NW Europe continue to show above normal temperatures for much of the tow week forecast period. Temperatures are trailing lower back towards normal in the middle of November.
• Norwegian supplies are back up to 319.1mcm/d today while gas transit through Ukraine is stable at 42.4mcm/d.
• European storage continues to edge higher with the warm weather delaying the heating season. European storage is now up to 94.95% full with Germany at 99.18%, Italy at 95.5%, France at 100%, and Netherlands at 91.84%.