TTF Recovers Weekly Losses on Supply Risks

TTF has bounced to recover all this week’s losses with concern for LNG supplies to Europe due to strikes in France and supported by the current cooler weather and higher storage withdrawals. France’s four LNG terminals remain blocked by staff strikes until 14 March with cargoes recently diverting to other Europe locations.

• TTF APR 23 up 6.5% at 46.45€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 up 5.6% at 46.98€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 5.1% at 54.6€/MWh
• LNG imports into Europe increased up to a near record of 524mcm/d to cover the recent period of cooler weather but dipped back down to 441mcm/d on 6 Mar. Northeast Asian spot LNG prices are also drifting lower but warm weather in the region is limiting buying interest.
• Weather in NW and central Europe is expected to warm in the coming few days with the two week forecast showing temperatures near normal for next week.
• Storage withdrawals have increased above normal to cover for the recent increase in heating demand but European storage is still at the top of the five year range at 57.54% on 8 Mar according to GIE data.
• Norwegian supplies are today nominated up to 323.1mcm/d but still below output last week due to the planned field outages this week.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today nominated at 42.4mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is up to 79.2mcm/d.