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TTF Steady Amid Muted Demand but Ongoing Middle East Concern


European TTF is holding steady after declining this week amid bearish short-term fundamentals with low demand due to mild weather and high wind power generation enabling small gas storage injections. The conflict in Israel appears contained with the main disruption so far on a halt to LNG exports from Egypt which last year provided about 4% of European LNG imports.

    • TTF DEC 23 down -0.1% at 47.73€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 0.1% at 49.96€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.6% at 48.5€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -0.2% at 51.66€/MWh
  • The latest weather forecast is relatively unchanged with above normal temperatures for NW and central Europe this week before drifting back towards normal or just below in the second week of the outlook.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up to 329.6mcm/d after gradually recovering from just below 304mcm/d on 28 Oct.
  • European natural gas storage levels are still building slightly and up to 99.32% full on 1 Nov according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.1%.
  • Total European LNG sendout has increased up to 386mcm/d on 31 Oct compared to an average for October of about 326mcm/d.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 39.7mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are down at 42.4mcm/d today.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes were yesterday near normal at 235k.

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