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TTF Surges 10% on Cold Weather Despite Strong LNG Supply

NATURAL GAS

Cooling weather forecasts in Europe have driven TTF front month up around 10% today

  • The higher European gas prices have widened the JKM-TTF spread back out to -5$/mmbtu having closed in to nearly -2$/mmbtu late last week. The spreads still favour LNG flows to Europe for December with the US netback to Europe at 21.91$/mmbtu and to Asia at 18.92$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg calculations.
  • Netbacks still favour US LNG flows to Europe over Asia throughout this winter.
  • Northeast Asia spot LNG are holding steady in the low 20$/mmbtu with front month JKM just over 27.2$/mmbtu.
  • Net LNG flows to NW Europe averaged up around 265mcm/d last week with total EU imports at 428mcm/d.
    • TTF DEC 22 up 10.5% at 108.1€/MWh
    • NBP DEC 22 up 15.3% at 263.28p/th
    • JKM Dec 22 up 0.2% at 27.23$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Dec 22 down -2.5$/mmbtu at -5.29$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas DEC 22 up 5.3% at 6.19$/mmbtu

Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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