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TTF Weighs Colder Weather and Easing Supply Concern


TTF edges back up boosted by a cooler weather forecast after a decline yesterday to the lowest since early October amid easing supply concerns. Supply fears due to Middle East tensions have eased following confirmation of an Israeli/Hamas temporary ceasefire as part of a deal to free hostages. Egypt is set to resume LNG exports with the arrival of a vessel to the Idku facility.

    • TTF DEC 23 up 0.1% at 44.11€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 0.1% at 45.4€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -0.2% at 44.5€/MWh
  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to fall below normal into the coming weekend and then expected to remain below throughout the remaining two week period.
  • European LNG sendout was back up to 415mcm/d from down at around 380mcm/d in the previous couple of days but is still below flows of approximately 450mcm/d seen this time last year.
  • Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe has edged higher again up to 354mcm/d today with Gassco showing no planned field or processing plant outages this week.
  • European natural gas storage has edged lower after small withdrawals on the day to 98.88% full on Nov 20 according to GIE data and still well above the seasonal five year range.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are today at 49.7mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday up to 288k.

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