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[Correction] Twist Steepening On Negotiations, FOMC Ahead

US TSYS
[Correcting title to say steepening and not flattening]
  • A mixed session so far but cash Tsys see a small twist steepening on the day after Zelensky earlier said the stance presented by both sides at talks has ‘become more realistic’.
  • 2YY -0.4bps at 1.845%, 5YY +0.9bps at 2.114%, 10YY +1.4bps at 2.158% and 30YY +1.0bps at 2.488%.
  • TYM2 is almost unchanged on the day at 124-21+ on close to average volumes. Sitting at the bottom end of yesterday’s range, initial support is likely formed at today’s earlier low of 124-10+ after which it could open 124-01 (May 21, 2019 (cont.)).
  • The FOMC dominates today with a 25bp hike almost unanimously expected with attention instead on the dot plot and any guidance on the path of the curve, with markets currently pricing in a relatively front-loaded path.
  • Data: Retail sales for Feb (0830ET) are expected to see a pause in growth after booming January in nominal terms. Also get international trade prices for Feb (0830ET), business inventories for Jan (1000ET) and the NAHB housing index for Mar (1000ET).
  • No Tsy issuance.
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