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Two Previously Dovish Areas Of Labor Market Revised Away

US DATA
  • Two areas that Vice Chair Brainard had pointed to in a dovish speech last month, average weekly hours and temporary help services, both saw upward revisions and an increase in January.
  • Weekly hours averaged 0.1hrs higher per month through 4Q22 and then jumped from 34.4 to 34.7 (cons unchanged at 34.3). That increase doesn’t sound large but it means that hours had been seen at the bottom of the pre-pandemic range but are now above the top-end of the range.
  • Temporary help services had been seen peaking in Jul’22 and declining for five consecutive months but that was revised to just two months (Nov and Dec with a still solid -45k average per month) before rising 26k in January.

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