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U.Mich 1Y Inflation Expectations Reverse Preliminary Climb, 5-10Y Steady

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  • U.Mich consumer sentiment saw a smaller than first thought hit in the final November print, down from 59.9 to 56.8 (first thought 54.7).
  • Inflation expectation components continued their run of preliminary-final revisions, with the 1Y ahead now dipping a tenth to 4.9% vs the initial increase to 5.1%, leaving a 20bp rather than 40bp climb from most recent lows of 4.7% in Sep.
  • No change in the 5-10Y ahead though, which at 3.0% remains in the tight 2.9-3.1% range seen in all but one month since Aug’21.
  • However, within this, and it's something that NY Fed's Williams has pointed out with the NY Fed's expectations equivalent, "Uncertainty over these expectations remained at an elevated level, indicating that the general stability of these expectations may not necessarily endure."

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  • U.Mich consumer sentiment saw a smaller than first thought hit in the final November print, down from 59.9 to 56.8 (first thought 54.7).
  • Inflation expectation components continued their run of preliminary-final revisions, with the 1Y ahead now dipping a tenth to 4.9% vs the initial increase to 5.1%, leaving a 20bp rather than 40bp climb from most recent lows of 4.7% in Sep.
  • No change in the 5-10Y ahead though, which at 3.0% remains in the tight 2.9-3.1% range seen in all but one month since Aug’21.
  • However, within this, and it's something that NY Fed's Williams has pointed out with the NY Fed's expectations equivalent, "Uncertainty over these expectations remained at an elevated level, indicating that the general stability of these expectations may not necessarily endure."