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U.Mich 5-10Y Expectations Revise Away Latest Decline

US DATA
  • U.Mich inflation expectations are unrevised for the near-term and revised higher for an unchanged monthly reading for the longer-term.
  • 1Y: 2.9% (prelim 2.9, cons 2.9) in Jan after 3.1% in Dec.
  • 5-10Y: 2.9% (prelim 2.8, cons 2.8) in Jan after 2.9% in Dec.
  • It means 5-10Y inflation expectations didn’t actually drop out of the 2.9-3.1% range seen in all but two months lower and one month higher since Aug’21.
  • Whilst down from a recent high of 3.2% in Nov (highest since 2011), it doesn’t match the moderation seen in the NY Fed’s 3Y and 5Y measures of 2.6% and 2.5% in December.

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