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Ending QE Early Would Be Hawkish... Right?

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The initial impetus from Wednesday's eventful NY session gradually dissipated, while further acceleration in China's PPI growth poured fuel on global inflation worries. Australia's labour market report and Japan's 5-Year debt auction provided remaining regional highlights.

  • T-Notes meandered within a 0-04 range, struggling for a clear direction. The contract last trades +0-01+ at 131-08+. Cash Tsy curve runs steeper as we type, unwinding some of yesterday's move, with yields sitting -0.5bp to +3.2bp. 30-Year Tsys underperform, despite yesterday's solid offering of that tenor. Eurodollar futures last seen unch. to +2.5 ticks through the reds. U.S. factory-gate inflation and weekly jobless claims take focus on the data front, while there is plenty of Fedspeak coming up today.
  • JGB futures edged higher into the Tokyo lunch break but trimmed gains thereafter. The contract changes hands at 151.36, 11 ticks above last settlement. Cash JGB yield curve bull flattened. The MoF auctioned 5-Year JGBs, drawing bid/cover ratio of 3.86x (prev. 4.42x), with low price matching dealer expectations. PM Kishida dissolved parliament, setting the scene for the Oct 31 general election.
  • Cash ACGB curve was paring its initial bull flattening, but the release of a net negative Australian jobs market report reversed that trend, inspiring fresh demand for Aussie bonds. The curve still runs flatter, with yields sitting +1.0bp to -7.7bp. Aussie bond futures moved away from lows, YM trades -1.0 & XM +5.5 at typing. Bills run 1-2 ticks through the reds. Australia's employment shrank more than forecast, which was driven exclusively by part-time positions. Unemployment edged higher, but not as much as expected, while participation dipped. Comments from RBA Dep Gov Debelle offered little of note, while the Reserve Bank offered to buy A$1.6bn of ACGBs with maturities of Apr '29 to Nov '32, but excluding ACGB May '32.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3806 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3806 |
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