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UBS: Powell/Brainard Differ On Bank Regulation, Not Mon Pol

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • The UBS baseline is for Powell to be re-appointed. Markets are familiar with Powell's style of communication and it should be relatively easy to confirm in the Senate.
  • They note that Biden would prefer to have lower inflation than slightly faster growth, so a super-dovish board is unlikely.
  • Brainard is the main alternative. Some see her as more dovish than Powell, "but in our view she is not far from the center among FOMC members".
  • There is a clearer policy difference on bank regulation as Brainard has previously dissented against some of the easing of regulations approved by Powell.
  • If Powell is re-appointed, expect Biden to appoint Brainard as vice-chair for supervision, giving her extra responsibilities for bank regulation.
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