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UK DATA: Disappointing activity data; should increase December cut probability

UK DATA
  • Services rebounded less than expected at +0.1%M/M (after falling -0.1%M/M in June, consensus was +0.2%). The ONS notes that "The largest negative contribution to services growth in July 2024 came from professional, scientific and technical activities, down by 1.3%, following five consecutive monthly increases."
  • Industrial production of -0.8%M/M reversed last month's +0.8%M/M gain (consensus was +0.3%) with manufacturing particularly weak - falling -1.3%M/M following a -1.5%M/M fall in June (consensus wsa -0.1%). Manufacturing appears to have broadly flatlined since Q4-23.
  • Just like in France and Germany, there was weakness in transport manufacturing: The ONS notes: "The largest negative contribution in July 2024 came from the manufacture of transport equipment (down 2.3%), caused by the 3.5% decrease in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers industry."
  • Construction output also fell -0.4%M/M - against expectations of another +0.5%M/M rise.
  • Note that earlier periods were not open for revision with this release.
  • Overall we don't think this will have a huge impact on the MPC decision near-term, but on the margin it should cement a November cut and increase the probability of a December cut . Following yesterday's labour market data this is another release that is either in line with or below expectations. However the big picture is that the global market moves seen in the Asian session are likely to dominate the opening of UK markets today.
  • GBPUSD fell just over 10 pips on the UK activity data release, briefly back below 1.3100.
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