Ukraine/Israel Funding Could Stall Amid Presidential Election Campaigning

Should the Senate fail to pass a US-Mexico border policy overhaul/supplemental funding package this week, it will return to the agenda during a hectic Congressional session with a high risk of government shutdown. The political sensitivity of border policy may increase the risk the national security supplemental, which includes funding for Ukraine and Israel, stalls in Congress as it becomes politicised by the 2024 presidential election.

• The House is set to return on January 9. The Senate is scheduled to return on January 8.
• Zooming out, the Iowa caucuses, the first voting in the Republican presidential primary, will be held on January 15. The New Hampshire primary will take place on January 23.
• Funding for four government agencies (Agriculture, Energy and Water, MilCon-VA, and Transportation-HUD) expires on January 19. If Congress fails to legislate FY24 bills by then, the federal government will be partially shut down. The remaining eight bills, including critical defence funding, expire on February 2.
• Punchbowl notes: “Pay attention to the GOP primary dates especially. If there’s no Senate deal this week – or even if there’s a “framework” that still needs to be fleshed out with legislative text – that means lawmakers could be voting on an agreement next month. That’s just as Republican voters begin casting their ballots for the GOP presidential nominee.”
• Punchbowl continues, “it’s hard to see [former President Donald] Trump backing any immigration deal, especially if Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell supports it. The same goes for Ukraine funding, another huge priority for both McConnell and President Joe Biden.”