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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
HUNGARY
- Selling pressure on HUF has been elevated following Orban’s victory last week as market has been pricing in renewed political tensions with the EU in the near to medium term.
- In addition, CEE currencies have been very sensitive to the renewed geopolitical risks with EU preparing for new sanctions against Russia.
- HUF remains the most ‘undervalued’ currency among the G10/CEE world, currently trading nearly 25% below its ‘fundamental’ value according to our BEER FX model.
- The chart below ranks the major G10 and CEE currencies based on their percentage difference between the current spot rate and their 'fair' value, which we define using a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) model (using terms of trade, inflation and 10y interest rate differentials as explanatory variables).
- EURHUF tested its 380 resistance earlier this morning, increasing pressure on NBH policymakers as weaker forint keeps supporting inflation expectations.
- Next key level to watch on the topside stands at 383.20.
- On the downside, support to watch stands at 375.10.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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