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Underperforming after inflation

GILTS
  • Gilts are the outperformers in the core FI space this morning following the one tenth miss to headline CPI.
  • This followed six consecutive months of upside surprises to inflation, so markets may have been expecting an even higher print than the Bloomberg consensus.
  • Today's moves follow yesterday's big sell-off after the stronger than expected labour market report and have seen SONIA futures retrace around 1/3 of yesterday's moves.
  • There has been some minor steepening of the 2s10s curve, but a bigger move in 10s30s.
  • Friday will be another key day for the UK - we will have the release of GfK consumer confidence for May, retail sales for April and also a potentially important speech from BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill where he will discuss monpol, the economy and QT.
  • 2y yields down -4.6bp today at 1.384%, 5y yields down -4.4bp at 1.513%, 10y yields down -4.1bp at 1.838%, 30y yields down -2.5bp at 2.065%.
  • 2s10s up 0.5bp today at 45.4bp
  • 10s30s up 1.6bp today at 22.7bp
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