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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
The below is taken from the MNI BoC Preview, found here.
- At 5.76% in November, the unemployment rate almost surprised consensus of 5.8% owing to jobs growth coming in almost twice as strong as expected, but it’s still increased from the 5.0% readings of late 2022/early 2023.
- Borrowing Claudia Sahm’s recession indicator for the US, the rule has been triggered for the past three months, most recently with the three-month average of the unemployment rate 0.7pps higher than the minimum over the past twelve months.
- In contrast, the US at 0.33pps is tracking below the 0.5 threshold and would need to see two months at 4.0% to hit the 0.5 on rounded by the end of the year (it’s forecast at 3.9% for November).
- Despite this clear softening in the labour market, wage growth has remained one of the most hawkish elements of the areas the BoC puts most focus on, at least in Y/Y terms, sticking at the high end of its 4-5% range. It implies particularly strong inflationary pressure amidst the continued run of weak productivity growth.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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