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UniCredit View Change: ECB and Fed Forecasts

GLOBAL MARKET/OPINION
  • UniCredit has updated its ECB rate forecast: "We are penciling in 50bp of hikes in February and March, followed by 25bp increases in May and June. Thus, the deposit rate would reach 3.5% by the middle of the year. Our previous forecast was for a peak at 2.75% in March."
  • "The main reason for this revision is the surprisingly hawkish message that ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered at the December policy meeting."
  • "We are also revising up our forecast for the peak target range for the federal funds rate slightly, by 25bp to 5.00-5.25% by May. We continue to expect 25bp hikes in February and March, but we now expect another 25bp hike in May. We maintain our forecast for 150bp of cuts in 2024, starting in 1Q24."
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