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UPDATE: MNI UK Data Forecasts - December UK Retail Sales

MNI (London)
By Jamie Satchithanantham
     LONDON (MNI) - Analysts see UK retail sales contracting by 1.0% m/m in
December after a very strong "Black Friday"-enhanced November showing, an
updated survey of expectations shows. Ex-fuel, sales volumes are seen falling by
0.8% m/m. 
     The sector remains poised to contribute positively to fourth quarter GDP
growth and would have to fall by more than 3% m/m in December to not do so.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Dec           Dec           Dec           Dec
                    Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales  Retail Sales
                    Incl. Petrol  Incl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol  Excl. Petrol
                           % MoM         % YoY         % MoM         % YoY
Date Out                  19-Jan        19-Jan        19-Jan        19-Jan
Median                      -1.0           2.8          -0.8           2.8
Forecast High               -0.6           3.1           0.0           3.7
Forecast Low                -2.0           1.6          -1.5           2.2
Standard Deviation           0.5           0.6           0.5           0.7
Count                          9             6             6             4
Prior                        1.1           1.6           1.2           1.5
Barclays                    -2.0           1.6           N/A           N/A
Berenberg                    N/A           N/A          -0.6           N/A
Capital Economics           -0.8           2.9           N/A           N/A
Commerzbank                 -1.1           N/A           N/A           N/A
Investec                    -0.6           3.0          -0.6           3.0
Lloyds TSB                  -1.5           2.2          -1.5           2.2
Natixis                     -1.0           2.6           N/A           N/A
Nomura                       N/A           N/A           0.0           3.7
Oxford Economics            -0.6           3.1           N/A           N/A
Pantheon                    -0.8           N/A           N/A           N/A
Societe Generale             N/A           N/A          -1.2           2.5
UniCredit                   -1.0           N/A          -1.0           N/A
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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