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Free AccessUPDATE: UK Data Forecasts: Q2 GDP - Second Estimate, June IOS
By Jamie Satchithanantham
LONDON (MNI) - UK growth is seen being confirmed as coming in modestly
higher, with nine of the ten analysts polled by MNI expecting the second
estimate of second quarter GDP to come in unchanged at 0.3% q/q.
Despite revisions to the June industrial production (revised up from +0.1%
m/m to +0.5% m/m) and construction (revised down from +1.8% to -0.1% m/m), the
data published since the initial GDP estimate was published last month, these
are not seen to be significant enough to change the headline figures.
As such, the focus on Thursday will fall on the expenditure breakdown of
the GDP numbers.
---------------------------------------------
2017 Q2 2017 Q2
Second GDP Second GDP
Estimate Estimate
rate rate
% Q/Q % Y/Y
Date Out 24-Aug 24-Aug
Median 0.30 1.70
Forecast High 0.3 1.7
Forecast Low 0.2 1.7
Standard Deviation 0.0 0.0
Count 18 12
Prior 0.2 2.0
Bayern 0.3 N/A
Barclays 0.3 1.7
Berenberg 0.3 N/A
Capital Economics 0.3 1.7
Commerzbank 0.3 N/A
Daiwa Capital Markets 0.3 1.7
HSBC 0.3 1.7
ING 0.3 1.7
Investec 0.3 1.7
JP Morgan 0.3 1.7
LBBW 0.2 N/A
Lloyds TSB 0.3 1.7
Nomura 0.3 1.7
Oxford Economics 0.3 1.7
Pantheon 0.3 N/A
RBC 0.3 1.7
Standard Chartered 0.3 N/A
Societe Generale 0.3 1.7
The mutual thinking among analysts was that there would not be any material
affect from the revisions made to the income components that comprise GDP.
Despite revisions to the June industrial production (revised up from +0.1%
m/m to +0.5% m/m) and construction (revised down from +1.8%m/m to -0.1% m/m)
figures, made after the initial GDP estimate was published last month, these are
not seen to be significant enough to change the headline figures.
What could force a change, however, is a deviation from the ONS' forecast
for services output in June which will be confirmed and published alongside the
GDP data on Thursday. Three of the four analysts polled expect services output
to have expanded 0.3% m/m in June, in line with the thinking of the ONS.
--------------------------------------
Jun Jun
UK UK
Index of Index of
Services Services
% M/M % Q/Q
Date Out 24-Aug 24-Aug
Median 0.3 0.5
Forecast High 0.3 0.5
Forecast Low 0.2 0.5
Standard Deviation 0.0 0.0
Count 5 4
Prior 0.2 0.4
Capital Economics 0.3 0.5
HSBC 0.3 0.5
JP Morgan 0.3 N/A
Lloyds TSB 0.2 0.5
Oxford Economics 0.3 0.5
Household consumption, the primary driver pf GDP growth and largely
responsible for the slowdown in the first half of the year. Spending grew by
only 0.3% q/q in Q1, the weakest outturn since the final quarter of 2014. It
could rebound in Q2 on account of healthier retail sales activity (sales volumes
grew 1.5% in Q2 having contracted 1.4% in Q1).
In addition, observers will look to see how business investment and net
trade evolved between April and June. In Q1, investment was up 0.6% q/q after
declining 0.9% q/q in 2016 Q4. Net trade, however, deteriorated over the first
three months of the year and subsequently subtracted 1.4pp from growth.
The Bank of England has previously said they were watching to see if these
two components would pick up the slack from softer household spending, as real
earnings continue to contract, and prevent growth from slowing further.
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.