February 03, 2023 14:43 GMT
Upward AHE Revisions Continue To Muddy Latest Trends
- Average hourly earnings continued their string of revisions that notably change the prior trend although it was slightly less significant than the last two months.
- Recalling that AHE was surprisingly strong in Nov before being revised significantly lower in Dec, we’re now left with earnings growth having been roughly in the middle of the two, increasing an average 0.41% M/M through Q4 (and with a very similar pace for the non-supervisory measure).
- The latest rate however, in cooling to 0.30% M/M in January (0.25% non-super), left it at a similar pace to that initially seen in Dec and what Fed Chair Powell referred to as “abating a little bit”.
- The moderation in the Q4 ECI release earlier this week likely still carries more weight, but today’s AHE data are a timely reminder that any moderation in wage growth won’t necessarily be in a straight line.