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US 10Y Yields Lower Ahead of Employment Report

US TSYS

TYH4 is trading at 112-26, -02+ from NY closing levels.
Tsys finished strong but off late morning highs on Thursday, concerns over regional bank weakness helping push Treasury futures to the highest levels since late December '23 with TYH4 tapped 113-06.5 high (+28), well through initial resistance of 112-26.5 (Jan 12 high) with the focus now on 113-12 (Dec 27 high and bull trigger).

  • During early US trading on Thursday the 10Y yield fell to a 3.8147% low, on the back ofwider concerns over regional bank concerns. The KBW Regional Banking Index closed down ~2%, but off the midday low (-5%), driven by concerns over NY regional banks after New York Community Bancorp (purchaser of collapsed Signature Bank shares) fell over 40% yesterday and as much as 14% on Thursday.
  • Cash bond yields closed lower with the 2Y at 4.202%, -0.4bps , while the 10Y trades at 3.88%, -3.2bps.
  • Overnight US Data helped push Tsys Futures higher with Initial Jobless Claims (224k vs. 212k est) and Continuing Claims (1.898M vs. 1.839M est, prior down-revised slightly to 1.828M from 1.833M) were out, while Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 vs 50.3 and finally ISM manufacturing came in at 49.1 vs 47.2 expected.
  • Data Tonight: Jan Employ Report, UofM Inflation Expectations, Dec Factory and Durable Goods orders
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