{us} BMO's Tsys analyst Ian Lyngen said US...>

DOLLAR: {us} BMO's Tsys analyst Ian Lyngen said US Pres. Trump's comment last

night "that "If we have to close down our government, we're building that wall,"

was not the first time he has threatened to shut down the government at the end

of September if his agenda is derailed. In fact, in early May he offered a

similar observation noting that "Our country needs a good "shutdown" in

September to fix mess!" We're certainly cognizant that the budget debate can be

a heated process with strong rhetoric on both sides of nearly every issue, so we

won't take Trump's opening negotiating stance as a roadmap for the months

ahead." - But Lyngen adds that "nonetheless, it is certainly a reminder that a

shutdown is one of the options in the Congressional toolbox to force key

compromises if the debate comes down to the wire, which we expect it will

regardless of whether or not there is a shutdown." He adds that "in early

August, we conducted a client survey focused on expectations for the budget

negotiations and the probability assigned to a government shutdown was 27% on

average with a range of 0% to 80%."