US Credit Mkt Wk Ahd: Fed Speakers, CPI and Upsized Tsy Supply

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Federal Reserve exited their media blackout last Friday,

multiple speakers on tap throughout the week. 

     With the introduction of "symmetric" inflation in last week's policy

announcement, the highlight data focus will be on Thursday's April CPI (0.3%

est; ex food/energy, 0.2% est).

     Meanwhile, the US Treasury resumes refunding with this week's upsized

auctions, $31B 3Y note on Tuesday, $25B 10Y note Wednesday and $17B 30Y Bond

auctions Thursday.

     Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will make opening

remarks at the World Affairs Council in Jacksonville, Florida early Monday,

followed by Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan and Chicago Federal

Reserve Bank President Charles Evans at the same event later in the day,

participating in a panel discussion on "Learning About an ML-Driven Economy".

     Also on Monday, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will

speak at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, with audience Q&A.

     Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at a SNB/IMF

event in Zurich, Switzerland in the early morning hours Tuesday.

     Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic wraps the World

Affairs Council in Jacksonville, Florida with audience Q&A, while St. Louis

Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard deliver presentation on the U.S.

economy and monetary policy Friday morning at the Springfield Business

Development Corporation Meeting in Springfield, Missouri, with audience and

media Q&A.

     "Given Dudley and Williams comments about comfort with letting inflation

run above target 'for a while', TD Securities strategists said, they "suspect

that the market will be focused on any discussion on inflation overshoot."

     "Overall," Nomura strategists said they "expect FOMC participants to

emphasize the symmetric 2% inflation target while also emphasizing strength in

the economic outlook."

     Nomura also noted after a series of U.S./China trade delegation meetings

last week "showed no material change in the current tenor of ... trade relations

as both sides stake out positions unlikely to be accepted by the other. We find

it more likely than not that an initial round of tariffs by the two countries,

of roughly 25% on $50bn worth of goods both ways, will be enacted."

     On inflation metrics, TD Securities economist said they are "looking for an

on consensus print of 2.5% for the yoy headline CPI (or 0.2% mom) and 2.2% on

yoy core CPI (or 0.2% mom)," while "focus will be on the details of the

inflation report, and another solid reading can justify breakevens trading near

the upper end of the trading range."

     Nomura economists are expecting a "steady 0.2% (0.169%) m-o-m increase in

April's core CPI report" ... to be "partly weighed down by softness in core

goods prices, bringing the y-o-y rate to 2.2% (2.193%) from 2.1% previously." 

     Nomura's "forecast is consistent with our expectation that core inflation

will pick up only gradually after moving past the base effects from large

declines in wireless telephone service prices in March 2017.

     Morgan Stanley economists said they expect "a 0.16% gain on core CPI in

April, slightly below the 0.18% increases in March and February. Within the

core, we see core goods continuing to deflate mildly at -0.1% (after -0.1% in

March)."

     On Wednesday's PPI data, MS added they are looking for the number "to

decelerate in April on both a headline and core basis. We see core PPI

increasing 0.23%, which would bring the year-over-year pace (not seasonally

adjusted) down to 2.7% from 2.9% in March." 

     "For headline PPI," MS expects "energy prices to continue to be a drag,

while food prices should provide a small boost. Altogether, we look for a 0.19%

gain, which would lower the year-over-year rate (not seasonally adjusted) to

2.8% from 3.0%."

     Monthly Fed reinvestment caps consistent with the FOMC Sept. 20 decision

and June 2017 addendum:

MONTHLY CAPS ON SOMA SECURITIES REDUCTIONS

US TREASURIES.../AGENCY MBS/MONTH CAP 

- Oct-Dec 2017.. $6 billion./$4 billion 

- Jan-Mar 2018.. $12 billion/$8 billion 

- Apr-Jun 2018 $18 billion../$12 billion 

- Jul-Sep 2018 $24 billion../$16 billion 

- From Oct 2018** $30 billion $20 billion

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate): 

- May 07 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, 23rd Ann Fncl Mkts Conf/Atlanta Fed, 0825ET

- May 07 Apr ETI (107.72, --) 1000ET

- May 07 US Tsy $48B 13-Week Bill auction, May 10 settle, 1130ET

- May 07 US Tsy $42B 26-Week Bill auction, May 10 settle, 1130ET

- May 07 Richmond Fed Pres Barkin, George Mason Univ, Virginia, 1400ET 

- May 07 Mar consumer credit ($10.6B, $16.3B) 1500ET

- May 07 Apr Treasury Allotments (final) 1500ET

- May 07 Dallas Fed Pres Kaplan, Chi Fed Pres Evans discussion "Learning About

an ML-Driven Economy" 23rd Ann Fncl Mkts Conf/Atlanta Fed, Florida, 1530ET

- May 08 Fed Chairman Powell, SNB/IMF event, Zurich, 0315ET

- May 08 Apr NFIB Small Business Index (104.7, --) 0600ET

- May 08 05-May Redbook retail sales m/m (0.5%, --) 0855

- May 08 May IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (52.6, --) 1000ET

- May 08 Mar JOLTS job openings level (6.052m, --) 1000ET

- May 08 Mar JOLTS quits rate (2.2%, --) 1000ET

- May 08 US Tsy $31B 3-Year note auction, May 15 settle, 1300ET

- May 09 04-May MBA Mortgage Applications (-2.5%, --) 0700ET

- May 09 Apr Final Demand PPI (0.3%, 0.3%) 0830ET

- May 09 Apr PPI ex. food and energy (0.3%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- May 09 Apr PPI ex. food, energy, trade (0.4%, --) 0830ET

- May 09 Mar wholesale inventories (1.0%, --) 1000ET

- May 09 Mar wholesale sales (1.0%, --) 1000ET

- May 09 04-May crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (6.22m bbl, --) 1030ET

- May 09 Apr Kansas City Fed LMCI (0.71, --) 1100ET

- May 09 US Tsy $25B 10-Year note auction, May 15 settle, 1300ET

- May 09 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, World Affairs Council, Florida, Q&A 1315ET

- May 10 05-May jobless claims (211k, 220k) 0830ET

- May 10 Apr CPI (-0.1%, 0.3%) 0830ET

- May 10 Apr CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.2%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- May 10 06-May Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET

- May 10 04-May natural gas stocks w/w (+62Bcf, --) 1030ET

- May 10 US Tsy $17B 30-Year Bond auction, May 15 settle, 1300ET

- May 10 Apr Treasury budget balance (-$208.7B, $130B) 1400ET

- May 10 09-May Fed weekly securities holdings  1630ET

- May 11 StL Fed Pres Bullard on U.S. economy, mon/pol, Springfield Business

Development Corp Meeting, Springfield, Missouri, Q&A 0830ET

- May 11 Apr imports price index (0.0%, 0.5%) 0830ET

- May 11 Apr exports price index (0.3%, --) 0830ET

- May 11 May Michigan sentiment index (p) (98.8, 99.0) 1000ET

- May 11 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast 1100ET

- May 11 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (3.0%, --) 1115ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]