US Credit Mkt Wk Ahd: PPI, CPI, 3Y, 10Y, 30Y Tsy Auctions

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:40 GMT Oct 7/18:40 EST Oct 7

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Week ahead: shortened, post-holiday trade for rates and

foreign currency with limited data event risk (that doesn't really kick in until

Wednesday), moderate Fed speaker events and Treasury supply (3Y and 10Y on

Wednesday, 30Y on Thursday). 

     Headline risks tied to US politics always an underlying factor to keep an

eye on (we'll see how quickly focus segues back to President Trump after Brett

Kavanaugh's successful supreme court placement), not to mention foreign trade

(aside from USMCA, or life after NAFTA 2.0) and the Italian budget debate.

Data and Speaker highlights (estimates):

     - Tuesday: Data limited to Oct Redbook retail sales and NY Fed expectations

survey (3.0% last August).

     Fed speakers include Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and NY Fed

President Williams. Don't expect much from Evans this time around while Williams

will take questions at a NY Fed/Bank of Indonesia Central Banking Forum in

Tanjung Benoa, Indonesia late in the evening.

     - Wednesday: September Final Demand PPI (0.2%) and August wholesale

inventories (0.8%).

     On PPI, Morgan Stanley economists "look for a 0.19%M gain, marking a

rebound after the decline in August which had been the first in over a year." 

     Nomura economists on wholesale inventories estimate a "solid 0.8% m-o-m

gain in August's wholesale inventories led by both durable and nondurable

goods."

     Chicago Fed President Evans will take questions at a Flint & Genesee

Chamber of Commerce Luncheon in Flint, Mi. Later in the evening, Atlanta Fed

President Bostic will field questions and discuss the economic outlook at the

National Assn Corporate Directors conference in Atlanta, Ga.

     - Thursday: Weekly claims (205k), CPI (0.2%) and Treasury budget balance

($62B).

     Barclays economists "expect headline CPI to have increased 0.2% on the

month in September (2.4% y/y), driven by energy prices. For core CPI, we

forecast an increase of 0.2% m/m and 2.3% y/y. On the NSA CPI index, we expect a

reading of 252.7."

     Deutsche Bank economists put emphasis on CPI as main data focus for the

week, estimating +0.2% for headline CPI and 0.3% for core CPI. "Should our core

CPI forecast hit the mark, the soft patch in the August data would all but be

erased with the year-on-year, six-month annualized, and three-month annualized

rates all snapping back toward their July readings (2.31%, 2.03%, and 2.32%,

respectively)."

     - Friday: late-week data risk evaporates, September import/export price

index on tap.

     Fed speakers include Chicago Fed President Evans at ENGAGE Undergrad

Investment Conference (with Q&A) at UofM, MI, while Atlanta Fed President Bostic

will speak on recruitment, economics, and public policy professionals, Network

of Schools of Public Policy, Affairs and Admin Conf, Ga, Q&A.

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

- Oct 08 Sep ETI (110.88, --) 1000ET

- Oct 09 Sep NFIB Small Business Index (108.8, --) 0600ET

- Oct 09 06-Oct Redbook retail sales m/m (0.3%, --) 0855ET

- Oct 09 Oct IBD/TIPP Optimism Index (55.7, --) 1000ET

- Oct 09 Chi Fed Pres Evans, '18 Opportunity Finance Network (OFN) Conf, Chi

1000ET

- Oct 09 Oct NY Fed expectations survey (3.0%, --) 1100ET

- Oct 09 NY Fed President Williams "Recent Developments in US Monetary Policy",

NY Fed-Bank Indonesia Central Banking Forum, Tanjung Benoa, Indonesia, Q&A.

2115ET

- Oct 09 NY Fed Pres Williams, NY Fed/Bank Indonesia Central Bank, Indonesia.

2230ET

- Oct 10 05-Oct MBA Mortgage Applications 0700ET

- Oct 10 Sep Final Demand PPI (-0.1%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Oct 10 Sep PPI ex. food and energy (-0.1%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Oct 10 Sep PPI ex. food, energy, trade (0.1%, --) 0830ET

- Oct 10 Aug wholesale inventories (0.6%, 0.8%) 1000ET

- Oct 10 Aug wholesale sales (0.0%, --) 1000ET

- Oct 10 Oct Atlanta Fed inflation (2.2%, --) 1000ET

- Oct 10 US TSY $36B 3Y auction (9128285F3) 1130ET

- Oct 10 Chi Fed Pres Evans, Flint & Genesee CoC Luncheon, Mi, Q&A. 1215ET

- Oct 10 US TSY $23B 10Y auction (9128284V9) 1300ET

- Oct 10 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, eco-outlook, Ntnl Assn Corp Dirs', Atl, Ga, Q&A.

1800ET

- Oct 11 06-Oct jobless claims (207k, 205k) 0830ET

- Oct 11 Sep CPI (0.2%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Oct 11 Sep CPI Ex Food and Energy (0.1%, 0.2%) 0830ET

- Oct 11 07-Oct Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET

- Oct 11 05-Oct natural gas stocks w/w 1030ET

- Oct 11 05-Oct crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w 1100ET

- Oct 11 US TSY $15B 30Y Bond auction (912810SD1) 1300ET

- Oct 11 Sep Treasury budget balance (-$214.1B, $62B) 1400ET

- Oct 11 10-Oct Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- Oct 12 Sep imports price index (-0.6%, 0.1%) 0830ET

- Oct 12 Sep exports price index (-0.1%, --) 0830ET

- Oct 12 Chi Fed Pres Evans, ENGAGE Undergrad Inv Conf, UofM, MI, Q&A. 0930ET

- Oct 12 Oct Michigan sentiment index (p) (100.1, 100.1) 1000ET

- Oct 12 Q4 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (+4.47%, --) 1100WT

- Oct 12 Q4 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (+2.8%, --) 1115ET

- Oct 12 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, recruitment, economics, and public policy prof'n,

Network of Schools of Public Policy, Affairs and Admin Conf, Ga, Q&A. 1230ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]