US Daily Oil Summary

U.S. retail gasoline prices could rise to nearly $4/gal in October if the Hurricane Season is extreme according to Goldman Sachs.

• US gasoline prices currently average $3.475/gal, down around 20 cents/gal on the whole-month May average, according to GasBuddy data.
• US gasoline demand’s revival after hitting a nadir in April is now abating, although demand continues to look robust for June, according to BNEF.
• US diesel prices have fallen to their lowest level since Feb. 2022, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan via X. The average price of retail diesel in the US has fallen to $3.791/gal, the lowest since Feb. 6, 2022.
• USD: The greenback sits moderately in the red as US yields continue to hover at the lowest levels of the week and equities remain buoyant ahead of the key US employment data on Friday. Thursday’s well telegraphed ECB rate cut and accompanying hawkish projections prompted just a 0.20% advance for EURUSD.
• Initial jobless claims in the Jun 1 week ticked up 8k to 229k, the highest in 4 weeks and exceeding consensus estimates of 220k (prior was 221k, rev up from 219k). Continuing claims for the preceding week edged 2k higher to 1,792k, non-impactful given a downward 1k revision to prior (to 1,790k).
• POLITICAL RISK: Former President Donald Trump is unlikely to see the inside of another courtroom before the November 5 election after two of his cases hit more delays.