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US Data Forecast Focus: September Payrolls Seen +70,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by only 
70,000 in September after August's disappointing 156,000 gain. The 
impact of Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma is clearly expected to 
show up in this month's data, adding downside risk. The unemployment 
rate is expected to hold steady at 4.4%. Hourly earnings are forecast to 
rise 0.3% after a 0.1% gain in the previous month. The average workweek 
is expected to stay at 34.4 hours, with a downside risk due to the 
hurricanes. 
     Analysts overestimated payrolls in August, as weakness in retail, 
wholesale, and utilities held back the headline number. Past data for 
September show misses have been tilted toward overestimates in the last 
ten years, with seven high estimates, a trend that could continue given 
the likelihood of hurricane effects. 
Forecast:                  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17
 Median                       195     183     170     181     180      70
 Range High                   225     231     210     220     200     125
 Range Low                    165     155     138     170     160     -45
Actual original result        211     138     222     209     156    #N/A
 vs med. forecast             -16      45     -52     -28      24    #N/A
Historical comparison:     Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16
 Median                        80     110     185     215     200     170
 Range High                   115     140     240     250     225     200
 Range Low                      0      80     154     195     180     130
Actual original result        103     114     148     248     142     156
 vs med. forecast             -23      -4      37     -33      58      14
                           Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17
ISM Mfg Employment           52.0    53.5    57.2    55.2    59.9    60.3
ISM Nonmfg Employment        51.4    57.8    55.8    53.6    56.2    56.8
Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       30.3    30.0    32.0    33.2    34.4    32.6
 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   10.9    11.7    13.6    14.5    16.0    14.5
Net change from survey week:
 Initial claims              -18k    -10k     +9k     -8k     -2k    +28k
  4-week mvg avg              -4k     -2k     +4k     -1k     -4k    +28k
 Continuing claims           -65k    -63k    +21k    +20k    -11k    -18k
Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)      1.7    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH     1.7    -1.7
ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    148     233     192     198     228     135
--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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