US Data Forecast Focus: September Payrolls Seen +70,000>

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by only 

70,000 in September after August's disappointing 156,000 gain. The 

impact of Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma is clearly expected to 

show up in this month's data, adding downside risk. The unemployment 

rate is expected to hold steady at 4.4%. Hourly earnings are forecast to 

rise 0.3% after a 0.1% gain in the previous month. The average workweek 

is expected to stay at 34.4 hours, with a downside risk due to the 

hurricanes. 

     Analysts overestimated payrolls in August, as weakness in retail, 

wholesale, and utilities held back the headline number. Past data for 

September show misses have been tilted toward overestimates in the last 

ten years, with seven high estimates, a trend that could continue given 

the likelihood of hurricane effects. 

Forecast:                  Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

 Median                       195     183     170     181     180      70

 Range High                   225     231     210     220     200     125

 Range Low                    165     155     138     170     160     -45

Actual original result        211     138     222     209     156    #N/A

 vs med. forecast             -16      45     -52     -28      24    #N/A

Historical comparison:     Sep-11  Sep-12  Sep-13  Sep-14  Sep-15  Sep-16

 Median                        80     110     185     215     200     170

 Range High                   115     140     240     250     225     200

 Range Low                      0      80     154     195     180     130

Actual original result        103     114     148     248     142     156

 vs med. forecast             -23      -4      37     -33      58      14

                           Apr-17  May-17  Jun-17  Jul-17  Aug-17  Sep-17

ISM Mfg Employment           52.0    53.5    57.2    55.2    59.9    60.3

ISM Nonmfg Employment        51.4    57.8    55.8    53.6    56.2    56.8

Conf Bd Jobs Plentiful       30.3    30.0    32.0    33.2    34.4    32.6

 Plentiful/Hard to Get Gap   10.9    11.7    13.6    14.5    16.0    14.5

Net change from survey week:

 Initial claims              -18k    -10k     +9k     -8k     -2k    +28k

  4-week mvg avg              -4k     -2k     +4k     -1k     -4k    +28k

 Continuing claims           -65k    -63k    +21k    +20k    -11k    -18k

Strikers (Net Chg thsnd)      1.7    UNCH    UNCH    UNCH     1.7    -1.7

ADP Emp Report (Chg thsnd)    148     233     192     198     228     135

--Kevin Kastner 202-371-2121; email: kkastner@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]