US Data: Highlights of Market Estimates of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Dec 9/17:06 EST Dec 9

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming

U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg estimates. The comment section

presents the key elements behind the median forecasts. 

     Final Q3 Non-Farm Productivity (percent change)

 Tuesday, Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:

                   Median                              3Qf    3Qp    2Qf 

Final Productivity  -0.1%                               --  -0.3%  +2.5%

Unit Labor Cost     +3.4%                               --  +3.6%  +2.4%

     Comments: The final estimate for third quarter non-farm productivity growth

is expected to be higher than the preliminary estimate at -0.1%, while unit

labor costs are slated to be revised down slightly to +3.4%.

Consumer Price Index for November (percent change) 

 Wednesday, Dec. 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual: 

                   Median                         Nov19  Oct19  Sep19 

CPI                 +0.2%                            --  +0.4%  flat 

CPI Core            +0.2%                            --  +0.2%  +0.1%

     Comments: Headline U.S. consumer inflation is expected to slow in November,

with markets expecting a +0.2% increase following October's stronger 0.4% gain.

Gasoline prices fell in November by approximately -1.4%, which should hold down

headline inflation despite coming in below the seasonal norm. Core CPI is

expected to grow steadily in November, with markets forecasting another +0.2%

gain, same as October.

Treasury Statement for November($ billions) 

 Wednesday, December 11 at 2:00 p.m. ET                     Actual:   

                   Median:                            Nov19   Oct19  Sep19 

Treasury Budget   -205.6b                                -- -134.5b -82.8b      

     Comments: The U.S. deficit is expected to widen to -$195.0 billion from

-$134.5 billion in October. 

Producer Price Index for November (percent change) 

 Thursday, Dec 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:

                  Median:                              Nov19  Oct19  Sep19

PPI                +0.2%                                  --  +0.4%  -0.3%

Core PPI           +0.2%                                  --  +0.3%  -0.3%

     Comments: PPI and Core PPI for November are both expected to increase by

+0.2% with core services slated to be the main driver of core PPI.

Weekly Jobless Claims

 Thursday, December 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual: 

                  Median:                               Dec07 Nov30 Nov23

Initial Claims     215K                                    --  203K  213K

     Comments: Weekly jobless claims are expected to reach 215K for the week

ending December 7. November 30 jobless claims were filed at 203K, below

consensus expectations. Despite concerns about a two-week spike in early

November, the data now suggest the risk of rising claims levels is decreased in

the near-term.

Import/Export Prices for November (percent change)

 Friday, Dec. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                            Actual:

                    Median:                            Nov19  Oct19  Sep19   

Import Price Index    +0.2%                               --  -0.5%  +0.1%

Export Price Index    +0.1%                               --  -0.1%  -0.2%

     Comments: The import price index is expected to increase +0.2% after a

-0.5% downturn in October. The export price index is expected to increase by

+0.1% after three straight months of decline.

Retail Sales for November(percent change) 

 Friday, December 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:                

                  Median:                              Nov19 Oct19 Sep19

Retail Sales       +0.5%                                  -- +0.3% -0.3%

Retail ex mv       +0.4%                                  -- +0.2% -0.1%

Retail ex mv+gas   +0.4%                                  -- +0.1% -0.1%

Comments: November retail sales are expected to increase by +0.4%, bolstered by

strong vehicle sales. The key retail sales control group (which excludes autos,

building permits and gas stations) is also expected to come in at +0.4%, up from

+0.3% last month.

Business Inventories for October (percent change) 

 Friday, December 13 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:

                 Median                                 Oct19 Sep19 Aug19

Inventories       +0.2%                                    --  flat -0.1%

     Comments: Business inventories for October are expected to meet consensus

expectations of a +0.2% increase, keeping with the preliminary October reading.

Wholesale inventories rose +0.1% in October, according to data released Friday. 

--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]