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US Data: Highlights of Market Estimates of Economic Forecasts

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Dec 9/17:06 EST Dec 9
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg estimates. The comment section
presents the key elements behind the median forecasts. 
     Final Q3 Non-Farm Productivity (percent change)
 Tuesday, Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:
                   Median                              3Qf    3Qp    2Qf 
Final Productivity  -0.1%                               --  -0.3%  +2.5%
Unit Labor Cost     +3.4%                               --  +3.6%  +2.4%
     Comments: The final estimate for third quarter non-farm productivity growth
is expected to be higher than the preliminary estimate at -0.1%, while unit
labor costs are slated to be revised down slightly to +3.4%.
Consumer Price Index for November (percent change) 
 Wednesday, Dec. 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual: 
                   Median                         Nov19  Oct19  Sep19 
CPI                 +0.2%                            --  +0.4%  flat 
CPI Core            +0.2%                            --  +0.2%  +0.1%
     Comments: Headline U.S. consumer inflation is expected to slow in November,
with markets expecting a +0.2% increase following October's stronger 0.4% gain.
Gasoline prices fell in November by approximately -1.4%, which should hold down
headline inflation despite coming in below the seasonal norm. Core CPI is
expected to grow steadily in November, with markets forecasting another +0.2%
gain, same as October.
Treasury Statement for November($ billions) 
 Wednesday, December 11 at 2:00 p.m. ET                     Actual:   
                   Median:                            Nov19   Oct19  Sep19 
Treasury Budget   -205.6b                                -- -134.5b -82.8b      
     Comments: The U.S. deficit is expected to widen to -$195.0 billion from
-$134.5 billion in October. 
Producer Price Index for November (percent change) 
 Thursday, Dec 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:
                  Median:                              Nov19  Oct19  Sep19
PPI                +0.2%                                  --  +0.4%  -0.3%
Core PPI           +0.2%                                  --  +0.3%  -0.3%
     Comments: PPI and Core PPI for November are both expected to increase by
+0.2% with core services slated to be the main driver of core PPI.
Weekly Jobless Claims
 Thursday, December 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual: 
                  Median:                               Dec07 Nov30 Nov23
Initial Claims     215K                                    --  203K  213K
     Comments: Weekly jobless claims are expected to reach 215K for the week
ending December 7. November 30 jobless claims were filed at 203K, below
consensus expectations. Despite concerns about a two-week spike in early
November, the data now suggest the risk of rising claims levels is decreased in
the near-term.
Import/Export Prices for November (percent change)
 Friday, Dec. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                            Actual:
                    Median:                            Nov19  Oct19  Sep19   
Import Price Index    +0.2%                               --  -0.5%  +0.1%
Export Price Index    +0.1%                               --  -0.1%  -0.2%
     Comments: The import price index is expected to increase +0.2% after a
-0.5% downturn in October. The export price index is expected to increase by
+0.1% after three straight months of decline.
Retail Sales for November(percent change) 
 Friday, December 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:                
                  Median:                              Nov19 Oct19 Sep19
Retail Sales       +0.5%                                  -- +0.3% -0.3%
Retail ex mv       +0.4%                                  -- +0.2% -0.1%
Retail ex mv+gas   +0.4%                                  -- +0.1% -0.1%
Comments: November retail sales are expected to increase by +0.4%, bolstered by
strong vehicle sales. The key retail sales control group (which excludes autos,
building permits and gas stations) is also expected to come in at +0.4%, up from
+0.3% last month.
Business Inventories for October (percent change) 
 Friday, December 13 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:
                 Median                                 Oct19 Sep19 Aug19
Inventories       +0.2%                                    --  flat -0.1%
     Comments: Business inventories for October are expected to meet consensus
expectations of a +0.2% increase, keeping with the preliminary October reading.
Wholesale inventories rose +0.1% in October, according to data released Friday. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email: ryan.hauser@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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