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US Data: Highlights of Market Estimates of Economic Forecasts

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are highlights of forecasts for upcoming
U.S. economic indicators provided by Bloomberg estimates. The comment section
presents the key elements behind the median forecasts. 
Consumer Price Index for November (percent change) 
 Wednesday, Dec. 11 at 8:30 a.m. ET                          Actual: 
                   Median                         Nov19  Oct19  Sep19 
CPI                 +0.2%                            --  +0.4%  flat 
CPI Core            +0.2%                            --  +0.2%  +0.1%
     Comments: Headline U.S. consumer inflation is expected to slow in November,
with markets expecting a +0.2% increase following October's stronger 0.4% gain.
Gasoline prices fell in November by approximately -1.4%, which should hold down
headline inflation despite coming in below the seasonal norm. Core CPI is
expected to grow steadily in November, with markets forecasting another +0.2%
gain, same as October.
Treasury Statement for November($ billions) 
 Wednesday, December 11 at 2:00 p.m. ET                     Actual:   
                   Median:                            Nov19   Oct19  Sep19 
Treasury Budget   -206.2b                                -- -134.5b -82.8b      
     Comments: The U.S. deficit is expected to widen to -$195.0 billion from
-$134.5 billion in October. 
Producer Price Index for November (percent change) 
 Thursday, Dec 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                           Actual:
                  Median:                              Nov19  Oct19  Sep19
PPI                +0.2%                                  --  +0.4%  -0.3%
Core PPI           +0.2%                                  --  +0.3%  -0.3%
     Comments: PPI and Core PPI for November are both expected to increase by
+0.2% with core services slated to be the main driver of core PPI.
Weekly Jobless Claims
 Thursday, December 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET                      Actual: 
                  Median:                               Dec07 Nov30 Nov23
Initial Claims     215K                                    --  203K  213K
     Comments: Weekly jobless claims are expected to reach 215K for the week
ending December 7. November 30 jobless claims were filed at 203K, below
consensus expectations. Despite concerns about a two-week spike in early
November, the data now suggest the risk of rising claims levels is decreased in
the near-term.
Import/Export Prices for November (percent change)
 Friday, Dec. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                            Actual:
                    Median:                            Nov19  Oct19  Sep19   
Import Price Index    +0.2%                               --  -0.5%  +0.1%
Export Price Index    +0.1%                               --  -0.1%  -0.2%
     Comments: The import price index is expected to increase +0.2% after a
-0.5% downturn in October. The export price index is expected to increase by
+0.1% after three straight months of decline.
Retail Sales for November(percent change) 
 Friday, December 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET                     Actual:                
                  Median:                              Nov19 Oct19 Sep19
Retail Sales       +0.5%                                  -- +0.3% -0.3%
Retail ex mv       +0.4%                                  -- +0.2% -0.1%
Retail ex mv+gas   +0.4%                                  -- +0.1% -0.1%
Comments: November retail sales are expected to increase by +0.4%, bolstered by
strong vehicle sales. The key retail sales control group (which excludes autos,
building permits and gas stations) is also expected to come in at +0.4%, up from
+0.3% last month.
Business Inventories for October (percent change) 
 Friday, December 13 at 10:00 a.m. ET                        Actual:
                 Median                                 Oct19 Sep19 Aug19
Inventories       +0.2%                                    --  flat -0.1%
     Comments: Business inventories for October are expected to meet consensus
expectations of a +0.2% increase, keeping with the preliminary October reading.
Wholesale inventories rose +0.1% in October, according to data released Friday. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +86 (10) 8532-5998; email:

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